Strategy Scenario Planning

Don’t bet your future on a single forecast.

ClerPath’s Strategy Scenario Planning helps B2B SMB leadership teams explore multiple plausible futures, pressure-test their strategy, and turn uncertainty into a source of advantage.

When markets shift fast, the question isn’t “What will happen?”

It’s “Are we ready for what could happen?”

Why Scenario Planning matters now

For most SMBs, planning still assumes a relatively straight line: last year ± X%. Reality isn’t playing along.

New competitors or technologies appear “out of nowhere.”
Customer budgets and buying cycles swing with macro changes
Talent, regulation, supply chain, and AI create new constraints and opportunities

Traditional annual planning can’t keep up. You don’t need a thicker plan; you need a better way to think, decide, and adapt.

Scenario Planning gives you that system.

What we mean by Scenario Planning

Scenario Planning is not about predicting the future.

It’s about building a set of realistic, contrasting stories about how your market could evolve—and then designing strategy, choices, and safeguards that stand up across them.

We help you answer questions like:

What if our core segment cuts spend by 20% next year?
What if a major competitor changes pricing or launches a copycat product?
What if AI reshapes how customers expect us to deliver value?
What if we grow faster than planned — can our operations and talent keep up?

Instead of reacting in the moment, you’ve already rehearsed these futures and agreed on what you’ll do.

How Scenario Planning helps your business

Done well, Scenario Planning:

Sharpens your strategy: You see which choices still make sense across multiple futures—and which ones are fragile.
Clarifies your “no”: You stop spreading resources thin over ideas that only work in a narrow set of conditions.
Aligns leadership: Execs move from debating whose forecast is right to collaborating on “if/then” responses.
Accelerates decision-making: When a signal appears, you can move fast because you’ve pre-decided thresholds and actions.
Reduces downside, unlocks upside: You protect the core and still make smart, bold bets where you have an edge.

Approach: Scenario Planning + Business Wargaming

We combine structured Scenario Planning with Business Wargaming to make the work concrete and actionable.

Frame the critical uncertainties
- Identify the 2–3 forces that would most impact your business (e.g., pricing pressure, technology shifts, regulation, funding).
- Define the key strategic questions you need to answer (where to play, how to win, what to stop or start).
Build a small set of sharp scenarios
- Create 3–4 vivid, plausible futures (not dozens of vague ones).
- Quantify each scenario where it matters: demand, pricing, costs, talent, capital.
Run business war games
- Put your leadership team in the shoes of competitors, customers, and partners.
- Simulate moves and countermoves in each scenario to expose blind spots.
- Stress-test your current strategy, portfolio of initiatives, and operating model.
Define strategic options and “if/then” playbooks
- Agree on robust moves that make sense in most scenarios.
- Identify contingent moves: “If X happens, we will do Y within Z weeks.”
- Prioritize initiatives and investments based on resilience and upside.
Embed Scenario Planning into your rhythm
- Turn scenarios into a living tool, not a one-off workshop.
- Define the leading indicators you’ll monitor and how often you’ll revisit scenarios.
- Integrate scenario thinking into budgeting, portfolio reviews, and board conversations.